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The macro trends driving our data forecast point to geo-political and environmental challenges in the short term, but more energy commodities to ship in the short-to-medium term
While ship finance has fallen out of favour among many traditional lenders, the pain is not equally spread and the largest owners still manage to access corporate lending with very little, if any, reduction
Containers Outlook 2019
HMM’s strategic cooperation agreement with the 2M will end in April 2020, raising questions of how the carrier will fill its recently ordered ships
A slowdown in scrapping and an increase in newbuildings has reversed fortunes for shipowners
The cautious optimism that carriers expressed for 2018 has not quite come to pass, and there are more sharks still lurking beneath the surface. Looking forward to 2019-2020 the carriers still face challenging conditions, although the nature of the challenges will be changing — some gradually, and some more acutely
Marine insurers are heading into the uncharted waters of changing risk
Summer Outlook 2018
With strong supply-demand signals, external factors such as Washington’s policy preferences have become the strongest risks to shipping markets
Regulation and higher interest rates are resulting in more risks for owners and lenders despite freight market recovery
Spring Outlook 2018
Environmental regulation is the long-term trend, but shipping must first contend with a wide-reaching transparency regulation coming soon
LPG shipping markets may gradually recover this year on US exports and slowing fleet growth
Latest From Annual Outlook
While some in the market are expecting freight rate increases of up to 20%, others are more lukewarm. In any case, capesizes should be able to benefit with an anticipated rise in iron ore volumes from Brazil versus a muted 2019, while minor bulks will be hit by Indonesia’s ban on nickel ore exports
Container trade is forecast to have increased by 2% to 1.3bn tonnes in 2019. In 2020, growth is projected to 4.9% driven by strong intra-Asian trade but also firm growth on the main trade lanes
Even as sentiment for liquefied petroleum gas shipping is veering towards an improvement in the fortunes of owners as 2020 rolls on, those often unexpected outages, like the ones witnessed this year, still loom large in many minds. However, an intriguing demand story for LPG and moderate supply growth points towards a strong 2020 for LPG shipping
The 2020 fortunes of the crude and tanker market can be distilled into five elements — sanctions, storage, scrubbers, sulphur and supply — which will determine the direction for a sector finally seeing reasons for cheer after a protracted rates decline
The implementation of the sulphur cap and an impending decabronisation measure — either from London or Brussels — will dominate next year
The outlook for P&I and hull insurance can be summed up in two words: ‘more expensive’, thanks to the cull of the worst-performers at Lloyd’s, which has seen over 30 underwriters decide to axe at least one marine line
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