Will a period of uncertainty and volatility in 2019 force the industry get back to basics and manage risk more effectively in the coming year?
The macro trends driving our data forecast point to geo-political and environmental challenges in the short term, but more energy commodities to ship in the short-to-medium term
The Lloyd’s List Podcast: Outlook 2020
The Outlook Forum is an annual event hosted by Lloyd’s List where expert industry panelists are invited to discuss the major trends shaping the shipping industry over the coming 12 months. In this full audio recording of the event, which was held in London on December 10, 2019, you can hear Lloyd’s List Editor Richard Meade moderate the discussion which focusses primarily on the results of the Lloyd’s List Annual Survey - the results of which are available on Lloydslist.com.
Container trade is forecast to have increased by 2% to 1.3bn tonnes in 2019. In 2020, growth is projected to 4.9% driven by strong intra-Asian trade but also firm growth on the main trade lanes
While ship finance has fallen out of favour among many traditional lenders, the pain is not equally spread and the largest owners still manage to access corporate lending with very little, if any, reduction
LNG developers are locked in a stiff competition to get new capacity off the ground. Some have taken on the onus of securing shipping tonnage for contracted volumes
The implementation of the sulphur cap and an impending decabronisation measure — either from London or Brussels — will dominate next year
While some in the market are expecting freight rate increases of up to 20%, others are more lukewarm. In any case, capesizes should be able to benefit with an anticipated rise in iron ore volumes from Brazil versus a muted 2019, while minor bulks will be hit by Indonesia’s ban on nickel ore exports
Even as sentiment for liquefied petroleum gas shipping is veering towards an improvement in the fortunes of owners as 2020 rolls on, those often unexpected outages, like the ones witnessed this year, still loom large in many minds. However, an intriguing demand story for LPG and moderate supply growth points towards a strong 2020 for LPG shipping
The 2020 fortunes of the crude and tanker market can be distilled into five elements — sanctions, storage, scrubbers, sulphur and supply — which will determine the direction for a sector finally seeing reasons for cheer after a protracted rates decline
The outlook for P&I and hull insurance can be summed up in two words: ‘more expensive’, thanks to the cull of the worst-performers at Lloyd’s, which has seen over 30 underwriters decide to axe at least one marine line
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