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Summer outlook 2018

In our latest Quarterly Outlook series, we highlight the most significant risks in the main market sectors for the coming year. Read the previous outlook 2018 series here.

 

The power of externalities

With strong supply-demand signals, external factors such as Washington’s policy preferences have become the strongest risks to shipping markets

North America United States Containers

Five risks to check: LNG shipping

Bullishness is justified for the most part, but trade risks and supply worries could prove obstacles

US States China Tankers and Gas

Five risks to check: LPG shipping

Owners face obstacles on the journey to freight recovery as trade growth remains lacklustre

North America Asia Pacific India

Five risks to check: Product tankers

Crunch time for owners as newbuilding interest has recovered even before product restocking occurs

Tankers and Gas Products Mid-Year outlook

Quarterly Outlook: Regulation

A year and a half before the sulphur cap, attention needs to focus on enforcement

International EU IMO

Quarterly Outlook: Law

New rulings on the Hague Rules and time-barring of claims for awaiting orders could have profound implications in future shipping operations

Mid-Year outlook Law Political and Trade

Five risks to check: Container shipping

Oversupply worries persists with large newbuilding tonnage, while high bunker bills erode earnings of carriers

Containers Mid-Year outlook Bunkers

Five risks to check: Dry bulk shipping

Trade tensions, Chinese policies and supply disruptions may continue to affect market landscape even as fleet growth remains low

Asia Pacific China Europe

Five risks to check: Crude tankers

The down cycle has turned out longer and deeper than originally thought amid oversupply of tonnage

Tankers and Gas Mid-Year outlook VLCC

Five risks to check: Ship finance

Regulation and higher interest rates are resulting in more risks for owners and lenders despite freight market recovery

Asia Pacific China Finance

Quarterly Outlook: Insurance

Blockchain and broker consolidation in London may bring changes to the marine insurance industry in the coming quarters

United Kingdom Lloyds Mid-Year outlook

Latest From Market Outlooks

The Dry Bulk Outlook

While some in the market are expecting freight rate increases of up to 20%, others are more lukewarm. In any case, capesizes should be able to benefit with an anticipated rise in iron ore volumes from Brazil versus a muted 2019, while minor bulks will be hit by Indonesia’s ban on nickel ore exports

Dry Bulk Annual Outlook

The Container Outlook

Container trade is forecast to have increased by 2% to 1.3bn tonnes in 2019. In 2020, growth is projected to 4.9% driven by strong intra-Asian trade but also firm growth on the main trade lanes

Containers Annual Outlook

The LPG Outlook

Even as sentiment for liquefied petroleum gas shipping is veering towards an improvement in the fortunes of owners as 2020 rolls on, those often unexpected outages, like the ones witnessed this year, still loom large in many minds. However, an intriguing demand story for LPG and moderate supply growth points towards a strong 2020 for LPG shipping

Annual Outlook Tankers and Gas

The Tanker Outlook

The 2020 fortunes of the crude and tanker market can be distilled into five elements — sanctions, storage, scrubbers, sulphur and supply — which will determine the direction for a sector finally seeing reasons for cheer after a protracted rates decline

Annual Outlook Tankers and Gas

The Regulation Outlook

The implementation of the sulphur cap and an impending decabronisation measure — either from London or Brussels — will dominate next year

Annual Outlook Regulation

The Insurance Outlook

The outlook for P&I and hull insurance can be summed up in two words: ‘more expensive’, thanks to the cull of the worst-performers at Lloyd’s, which has seen over 30 underwriters decide to axe at least one marine line

Annual Outlook Insurance
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