Summer outlook 2018
In our latest Quarterly Outlook series, we highlight the most significant risks in the main market sectors for the coming year. Read the previous outlook 2018 series here.
With strong supply-demand signals, external factors such as Washington’s policy preferences have become the strongest risks to shipping markets
Bullishness is justified for the most part, but trade risks and supply worries could prove obstacles
Owners face obstacles on the journey to freight recovery as trade growth remains lacklustre
Crunch time for owners as newbuilding interest has recovered even before product restocking occurs
A year and a half before the sulphur cap, attention needs to focus on enforcement
New rulings on the Hague Rules and time-barring of claims for awaiting orders could have profound implications in future shipping operations
Oversupply worries persists with large newbuilding tonnage, while high bunker bills erode earnings of carriers
Trade tensions, Chinese policies and supply disruptions may continue to affect market landscape even as fleet growth remains low
The down cycle has turned out longer and deeper than originally thought amid oversupply of tonnage
Regulation and higher interest rates are resulting in more risks for owners and lenders despite freight market recovery
Blockchain and broker consolidation in London may bring changes to the marine insurance industry in the coming quarters
Latest From Market Outlooks
The International Maritime Organization will likely finalise its short-term GHG emissions measure in 2021; but it is the European Commission that will step forward with a market-based measure proposal that could alter maritime regulations as we know them
Dry bulk markets should be entering a period of higher rates, given a downcycle that spanned four years from 2016; but uncertainty about the pace of the recovery post-pandemic is still causing some concern
The old shipping adage that cargo is king applies more than ever for 2021. A rising east-west divide, post-Trump geopolitical policies, and post-pandemic consumer behaviour are recasting tanker market dynamics over the next 12 months
Strong LPG fundamentals are expected to present the segment with healthy demand in the coming year, while tight fleet supply, driven by a heavy drydocking maintenance schedule for older vessels, will keep freight rates buoyant
Tight cost controls and strict capacity management got container lines through the crisis of 2020. Yet while the outlook for 2021 still remains clouded by the ongoing pandemic, the lessons learned this year will put lines in a strong position to manage the uncertainties of next year
Next year will see fewer cargo cancellations as existing LNG plants ramp up output, which will help boost LNG fleet utilisation, observers say
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