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Summer outlook 2018
In our latest Quarterly Outlook series, we highlight the most significant risks in the main market sectors for the coming year. Read the previous outlook 2018 series here.
With strong supply-demand signals, external factors such as Washington’s policy preferences have become the strongest risks to shipping markets
Bullishness is justified for the most part, but trade risks and supply worries could prove obstacles
Owners face obstacles on the journey to freight recovery as trade growth remains lacklustre
Crunch time for owners as newbuilding interest has recovered even before product restocking occurs
A year and a half before the sulphur cap, attention needs to focus on enforcement
New rulings on the Hague Rules and time-barring of claims for awaiting orders could have profound implications in future shipping operations
Oversupply worries persists with large newbuilding tonnage, while high bunker bills erode earnings of carriers
Trade tensions, Chinese policies and supply disruptions may continue to affect market landscape even as fleet growth remains low
The down cycle has turned out longer and deeper than originally thought amid oversupply of tonnage
Regulation and higher interest rates are resulting in more risks for owners and lenders despite freight market recovery
Blockchain and broker consolidation in London may bring changes to the marine insurance industry in the coming quarters
Latest From Market Outlooks
While some in the market are expecting freight rate increases of up to 20%, others are more lukewarm. In any case, capesizes should be able to benefit with an anticipated rise in iron ore volumes from Brazil versus a muted 2019, while minor bulks will be hit by Indonesia’s ban on nickel ore exports
Container trade is forecast to have increased by 2% to 1.3bn tonnes in 2019. In 2020, growth is projected to 4.9% driven by strong intra-Asian trade but also firm growth on the main trade lanes
Even as sentiment for liquefied petroleum gas shipping is veering towards an improvement in the fortunes of owners as 2020 rolls on, those often unexpected outages, like the ones witnessed this year, still loom large in many minds. However, an intriguing demand story for LPG and moderate supply growth points towards a strong 2020 for LPG shipping
The 2020 fortunes of the crude and tanker market can be distilled into five elements — sanctions, storage, scrubbers, sulphur and supply — which will determine the direction for a sector finally seeing reasons for cheer after a protracted rates decline
The implementation of the sulphur cap and an impending decabronisation measure — either from London or Brussels — will dominate next year
The outlook for P&I and hull insurance can be summed up in two words: ‘more expensive’, thanks to the cull of the worst-performers at Lloyd’s, which has seen over 30 underwriters decide to axe at least one marine line
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