Half-Year Outlook 2022
The war in Ukraine, lockdowns in China, supply-chain disruptions, and the risk of so-called ‘stagflation’ mean that for many countries, recession will be hard to avoid. The consequences of that are not yet playing out in the shipping sectors reviewed in this half yearly outlook report, but even in containers where rates remain high and cash is still flowing into the lines’ bulging coffers, executives are already planning for the post-pandemic party hangover.
Russia adds compound interest to shipping’s challenges
The accumulation of disruption and supply chain shocks are transforming global trade as governments and businesses look to exchange efficiency for security
LNG: Winter of content ahead for traders as global energy crunch drives profits
Russia’s war on Ukraine has upended oil, gas and agricultural markets, triggered record prices and placed energy security at the top of political agendas as inflationary pressures and an economic downturn signal a global recession
Shipbuilding: Latest super-cycle gives shipyards the upper hand
While ordering activity for containerships may have reached its peak, the appetite for new liquefied natural gas carriers shows no sign of slowing down. Furthermore, orders for bulk carriers have started to pick up, which could be followed by an upturn in new tanker contracting
Marine insurance: More stable P&I rates, more expensive H&M
The International Group is about to shrink from 13 members to 12, with mixed predictions on the impact on shipowners; but can another renewal round characterised by stiff rate hikes be avoided?
Iran and Venezuela show Russia a sanctions-skirting template
Sanctions on Russia amid self-sanctioning by Western oil traders have already upended oil markets; incoming bans on crude and refined products cargoes, shipping and marine insurance and reinsurance will further disrupt global tanker trade flows
Tankers: Demand destruction threatens market turnaround
Not every vessel size will benefit from a significant recalibration of oil and refined product trades at a time of extreme geopolitical and global economic uncertainty
LPG: Looking to China for demand boost
Globally, the LPG trade is expected to rise by 3.9% in 2022 to 116.9m tonnes
Containers: Eyeing the post-pandemic slowdown
Box shipping will likely have its most profitable year on record in 2022, but with demand easing and a flood of new tonnage coming into service, the peak may have already passed
Dry bulk: Growing demand risks unlikely to upend strong rates
Slowing fleet growth is expected to support dry bulk rates, even as demand concerns emerge due to inflationary pressures globally
Regulation: Countdown to the CII
Regulation watchers are eyeing the January 1, 2023 deadline when the IMO’s Carbon Intensity Indicator rule kicks in; the regulation could end up rewarding dirtier ships, and the market impact is hard to predict
Ship finance: Falling cost scorches ‘alternative’ lenders
With many shipowners making more money than they can remember, and banks willing to cut margins to keep the business, it’s a buyer’s market and likely to remain so while good markets last
You must sign in to use this functionality
Authentication.SignIn.HeadSignInHeader
Email Article
All set! This article has been sent to my@email.address.
All fields are required. For multiple recipients, separate email addresses with a semicolon.
Please Note: Only individuals with an active subscription will be able to access the full article. All other readers will be directed to the abstract and would need to subscribe.