The Lloyd’s List Half-year outlook 2021 takes the temperature of the core maritime trades and offers a view on the market dynamics during the coming six to 12 months. Joining editor Richard Meade to consider the core box, bulk and tanker trade trends are: markets editor Michelle Wiese Bockmann, containers editor James Baker and senior dry bulk reporter Nidaa Bakhsh
After a long wait, shipping will finally learn how the European Commission believes it should be integrated into the EU’s Emissions Trading System. Meanwhile, governments at the IMO will engage in negotiations about a market-based measure, such as a carbon levy
Leasing has also expanded to fill part of the gap in ship lending, especially as lessors expanded their scope from newbuildings to cover secondhand transactions
The current year has seen some major claims, not least Ever Given, but the secular trend towards better safety overall continues
The box shipping sector has bounced back from the initial phases of the pandemic to record profitability; but the supply chain issues dogging the sector will continue until demand eases
More than half of the scheduled newbuildings were delivered in the first five months of the year and, with expected rising iron ore volumes, especially from Brazil, continuing strongly in the minor bulk trades and healthy grains flows, bulker owners will be able to enjoy profitable levels, bar any other unexpected black swan events
‘We could potentially see very strong LNG carrier spot rates for the remainder of 2021 and into 2022, exaggerated by the current low natural gas inventories’ — Joakim Hannisdahl of Cleaves Securities
Healthy market fundamentals are setting up high expectations for the next six months, even as alignment of available capacity and cargo supply appear shaky because of the continued delivery of new tonnage
A vaccine-led recovery is under way for the crude and product tanker markets but the underlying fundamentals that determine its speed and magnitude have never been so uncertain
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