Our Methodology

Cargo forecasts are based on the latest information from all sources available to Lloyd's List editorial team. These will always be conservative, and only take account of normal seasonal variations.

Current shipboard capacity in each route is estimated by deducting space lost for broken stows and wayport cargo from the operating capacity offered on every vessel in that trade lane. This is projected forward by estimating where newbuildings are likely to be deployed, as well as where replaced vessels are likely to be cascaded into.

Average vessel utilisation is simply one divided by the other. It should be noted, therefore, that the resulting freight rate trends only reflect what should theoretically happen if ocean carriers continue acting according to form. They do not take into account dramatic changes in strategy, such as mass lay-ups, service consolidation and more hub and spoke operations.