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Niklas Bengtsson is Director of Maritime Insight at Lloyd's List Intelligence
Latest From Niklas Bengtsson
Eyes have recently been focused on the result of the US presidential election and what that will mean for the global economy, but it is China that is leading the way in terms of recovery and the country continues to be the main driver for trade this year
Coronavirus-related travel restrictions and a decline in household spending are the main factors behind a decrease in global seaborne trade this year. But the drop has not been as bad as originally anticipated in many cases and there are positive signs for a recovery in 2021
Given the exceptional circumstances of the pandemic, it is unsurprising that GDP growth forecasts for 2020 vary widely. It is generally accepted though that there was a greater negative impact on economic activity in the opening half of the year than was initially predicted, while the world’s recovery will be more gradual
Current economic developments will have a major impact on seaborne trade, with volumes in 2020 forecast to fall by 3% compared with 2019, representing the first year-on-year decline since 2009
The coronavirus response will mark 2020 out as a year when the global economy went into reverse. This will have a negative impact on future seaborne trade and, while there will be a rebound, annual growth will track lower in 2022-24
Gross domestic product is shrinking in all regions around the world, with China suffering its worst contraction in 28 years, which is severely impacting global trade. Lloyd's List Intelligence data shows idle capacity in the containership fleet is at an elevated level