JOHN Fredriksen has been pursuing a merger between his flagship tanker operation Frontline and rival Euronav for nearly 23 years, so his decision to scuttle the latest iteration of a deal may not be the last time he takes a run at the Belgian tanker giant’s assets.

But any prospect of a combined tanker giant with a market capitalisation in excess of $6bn is well and truly off the table.

Despite assurances from a willing chorus of equities analysts who have been confidently predicting that the contentious $4.2bn coupling would go ahead despite the well-publicised headwinds, Mr Fredriksen ultimately lost patience and faith that he was getting a good deal.

Once opposition from Euronav’s founding Saverys family reached a merger-blocking 25% stake last month, the deal was dead in the water.

Everything that has happened since has been yet another failed negotiation in a long line of aborted merger attempts between the two rivals.

Frontline’s publicly stated “regret” that it could not complete the merger as envisaged in July 2022 offers little detail behind what Euronav has described as Frontline’s “unilateral” decision on Monday night to terminate the combination agreement.

But it seems that an amicable agreement to the impasse could not be reached, so with a full merger blocked by the Saverys family and a plan B combination agreement dragging on to the detriment of Frontline’s exposure to the proposed share exchange ratio, Mr Fredriksen inevitably pulled the plug.

The next chapter of the saga will see Alexander Saverys consolidate his $600m play to secure a 25% stake in Euronav with a bid to take control of the board.

In the short term that spells more turmoil for Euronav and a difficult series of questions for chief executive Hugo De Stoop.

As recently as last week he had been downplaying any concerns about the deal in an interview with Belgian newspaper Le Soir, arguing that that a non-merger “combination” had always been an option and it seemed that the equities analysts who had largely been happy to parrot the Euronav line were happy to buy the argument.

Mr Fredriksen, however, has always had a healthy disregard for analyst consensus and in the rare cases where he cannot in his eyes “win” at a deal, he has a well-documented history in making his rivals feel like they have at least lost.

The Saverys family have been keen to stress throughout what has been euphemistically referred to as a tense period of negotiations, that this was never a clash of personalities or people, it was just a difference in views on how shipping companies should be run and which strategy they should adopt. But there’s no escaping the fact that Mr De Stoop now finds himself in a precarious position.

Mr De Stoop’s immediate prospects may not be the headline priority here, but any chief executive who ends up in opposition to a 25% shareholder with another 18% shareholder walking away, is going have a difficult time defending their future prospects.

What this means for Euronav over the long term will be a question for Mr Saverys, assuming he is successful in taking control of the board as planned.

The hydrogen pioneer has made clear from the start that he sees Euronav’s future value as a decarbonisation frontrunner, but in the short- to-medium term Euronav finds itself in the early innings of a cyclical upturn it is well positioned to take advantage of.

Selling tankers just before an upcycle was never part of the strategy and Mr Saverys continues to believe the tanker market will generate good returns in the years to come, but he wants to see the cash flows from oil transportation reinvested in the diversification and decarbonisation of the Euronav fleet.

Mr Fredriksen will not get to see his long-desired merger, but there’s a distinct possibility he could ultimately get his hands on some of the steel he has been after for a long time as a consolation prize.

The king won’t get his crown jewel, argued one of the flurry of equities analyst reports issued in the wake of the deal being cancelled. But tanker investors will still get cyclical upside to an upturn, complete with dividends from both entities.

In the short term at least Frontline shares are the winner and Euronav is going to have to weather a relatively rougher period.

Since the merger agreement was announced last April, Frontline shares have risen “only” 19.9% while the peer group has gained 92%. With a deal now off the table, Jefferies analyst Omar Nokta was one of many analysts now forecasting shares to revert towards their historical premium valuation.

Euronav shares, however, will likely see some near-term pressure as the market processes what’s next for the company. All eyes will be on Mr Saverys’ next move, but Frontline's 6.7% stake and Frontline controlling shareholder Mr Fredriksen's 16.3% stake are likely to create what Mr Nokta described as “somewhat of an overhang” as investors assess whether those positions are eventually sold.

Mr Fredriksen does not make a habit of losing money, even when his many merger bids fall through.

Given the 16% stake he has been building up in US operator International Seaways at the same time as his Euronav tilt, there is already speculation mounting over his next ambitions for consolidation.