The Lloyd’s List Podcast: Will tankers recover before 2022?
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A low orderbook never saved a market — you need demand to recover. Oil needs to return to pre-pandemic levels before you can recalibrate the supply demand of the fleet and think about a more sustainable upturn, so says veteran equity analyst Jonathan Chappell. He talks tankers turbulence with Lloyd’s List Editor Richard Meade this week, and sets out his forecast to 2022
LIKE most analysts Evercore’s Jonathan Chappell is not overly optimistic that the first half of next year will be pretty, but he does see some light at the end of the tunnel toward the end of 2021 and, with a good wind behind us, 2022 could be OK, he argues. Just don’t expect a return to the anomalous peaks pre-2008.
After a year of extreme volatility, tanker markets will begin 2021 with little certainty of how demand for seaborne oil and refined products looks in a post-pandemic world, but Mr Chappell makes a compelling case for a tanker market returning to more muted cycles of normal.
Investors shouldn’t expect much more than the occasional six-month period of good earnings and anyone dreaming that consolidation is going to transform the market doesn’t understand how fragmented the industry really is.
Most listeners will know Jonathan Chappell as “the dean” of shipping analysts given his experience dating back nearly 20 years, but this is his first outing on the Lloyd’s List Podcast.
It’s also worth noting, as mentioned toward the end of this week’s podcast, that he dethroned five-time champion (and podcast regular) Michael Webber as shipping’s top equity analyst in the annual poll carried out by Institutional Investor earlier this year.
This is going to be the final podcast before the festive season properly kicks in and we’re going to be taking a well earned break on the podcast for a few weeks, but we will be back in 2021 so fear not your regular audio fix of the stories shaping shipping and my regular maritime waffle will restart energised and ready for a new year recovery.
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