THE economic tsunami of the coronavirus pandemic has delivered an unprecedented external shock to the macro outlook, affecting every aspect of international shipping in its wake.

On Thursday March 26, reporters and analysts from across the Lloyd’s List and Lloyd’s List Intelligence teams joined a special webinar: ‘Coronavirus: the issues for shipping and their impact’ to examine the data, offer market insight and answer your questions.

If you missed the live event, you can now listen on demand here.

Coronavirus: the issues for shipping and their impact

Speakers:

• Richard Meade - Managing Editor, Lloyd’s List

• Christopher Palsson - Managing Director and Head of Consulting, Lloyd’s List Intelligence

• Michelle Wiese Bockmann - Markets Editor, Lloyd’s List

An ‘Ask the Analyst’ Q&A session included contributions from:

• Containers and supply chain: James Baker, Lloyd’s List Containers Editor and Janet Porter, chair of the Lloyd’s List Editorial Board 

• Dry Bulk implications: Nidaa Bakhsh, Senior Reporter Lloyd’s List (London) and Inderpreet Walia, Senior Reporter Lloyd’s List (Asia) 

• Asia overview: Cichen Shen, Lloyd’s List China Editor

• Insurance and Law: David Osler, Senior Reporter Lloyd’s List (London)

• Industry and Regulatory Overview: Anastassios Adamopoulos, Reporter Lloyd’s List (London)

• Company credit issues: Sebastian Otterstad Villyn, Lloyd’s List Intelligence Entity Analysis Manager  

Don’t forget, we also have a special coronavirus hub page with daily updates and sector-by-sector analysis. 

Key topics covered in the webinar include:

• Macro focus: As forecasts are revised to account for potentially the sharpest quarterly decline in activity that has been recorded during the post-World War II era, how is seaborne trade holding up? For most commodities, the prospect of zero growth looms large this year, but could a rebound during the coming 24 months reverse that picture? Latest Lloyd’s List Intelligence revisions anticipate non-containerised general cargo to drop some 5% and while containerised growth is possible, a credit crunch could still derail many of the established players. Expect vehicle trades to drop 10% this year and a sharp contraction in dry bulk growth, potentially buoyed by a stimulus-led V-shaped recovery to follow. 

• Data analysis: As more data points and intelligence become available, the depth of our data analysis has improved so we will consider developing patterns in idle tonnage, floating storage and average miles per day across the fleet. While an upturn in Chinese port calls has offered a glimmer of positive news, a more global view of the data is starting to reveal supply chain pressure points. Our analysis will offer a regional breakdown of activity and trends.

• Energy shipping outlook: An oil price war and the coronavirus pandemic are dramatically restructuring supply and demand fundamentals for the tanker sector, sending mixed signals about the direction of rates and earnings for the remainder of 2020. The sharp drop in oil prices has reduced fuel costs, but it has also narrowed the all-important spread between very low sulphur fuel oil and high-sulphur fuel oil. Premiums for scrubber-fitted ships are evaporating and people in the industry are having to adapt their strategies quickly. We will examine the current context that is informing decisions around floating and onshore storage, but we will also explain why the only certainty is that there will be a global oversupply of crude and refined products on a scale that cannot yet be fully appreciated.

• Credit crunch and crew concerns: As companies adapt to the rapidly changing economic circumstances our experts will assess the risk areas for companies continuing to operate. We know, for example, that container lines are on the brink of cashflow crunch — global carriers are still being paid for freight shipped from Asia before China shut down factories, but now face a hole in their finances as the impact of blanked sailings and reduced volumes starts to be felt. Meanwhile, the coronavirus pandemic has left seafarers around the world in a precarious position, but as the focus shifts to European government responses, the industry is pulling together to ensure that shipping and seafarers, can keep world trade afloat. Our editorial team will be on hand to offer the latest insights into the industry pressure points, regulatory responses and company concerns.