The Lloyd’s List Podcast: What shape will shipping’s coronavirus recovery take?
Listen to the latest edition of Lloyd’s List’s weekly podcast — your weekly briefing on the stories shaping shipping
However horrific the disruption looks right now at a consumer level, we have to believe that coronavirus is not going to structurally change the shipping markets. Can we hope for a V-shaped recovery, or should we brace for a misshapen U? God forbid we even consider the prospect of an L-shaped non-recovery. Joining Lloyd’s List Editor Richard Meade this week to discuss the shape of things to come is Shipping Strategy managing director and returning podcast pundit, Mark Williams
WHILE we don’t know how long the Coronavirus disruption will last, China’s experience suggests that three months is a reasonable guess for the worst to pass, but what happens next?
Coronavirus is not expected to structurally change the shipping markets. And while its disruption looks horrific at the consumer level right now, we have to assume that the demand in most sectors will return.
Our guest on this week’s Podcast is Shipping Strategy managing director Mark Williams and his view is that the base case for recovery will involve a sharp recession/weak growth in the first half of the year with a stimulus-led V-shaped recovery to follow including stronger growth in 2021.
Covid-19 extends the low point of the cycle, but does not obliterate it, he argues.
Yes, things are bleak right now, but opportunities for bold moves will come for those with cash and conviction.
You can keep up to date with all our latest stories on the subject via our special coronavirus page here.
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